There was something Jeff said to Julie Chen on the live show last Thursday night, and it completely made sense why veterans of these games tend to go pretty far despite the target on their back. He said when you’re in a house with all the same people and rumors spread daily, even crazy things like Elissa nominating herself can sound legitimate.
The reason why veterans can go deep is because once they survive the initial target, they end up forming an alliance and keeping it tight. They reassure the members that rumors are just rumors and people are just paranoid, and this is because they’ve seen it before. Right now, there are no veterans to reassure anyone, so alliances are going crazy and turning on each other every other hour.
Last night, Judd was the target by many in his own alliance. Amanda came up with the idea that Judd has been the secret MVP the past two weeks and was able to convince herself that he first put up Elissa and GM to frame Howard, and then he put up Amanda this week because he really wants her out. It doesn’t help that Judd has been making fake alliances with many other people, but it really does seem he has been loyal to the ‘goof troop’. He has been able to get a lot of information from those fake alliances, and that’s why he did it.
Amanda went into full paranoia mode and is now convinced she’s going to go home this week. This could be good for Howard because she may end up driving so many people crazy that they just send her home anyway, but as of right now she’s pretty safe.
Spencer has been doing more campaigning for Howard than Howard has, but he has about 2 1/2 days of nothingness to continue securing votes one at a time. As it stands, he’s still at 1 (himself). He doesn’t exactly strike me as a big negotiator, so I’m still expecting Howard to walk out the door this Thursday, but anything can happen before then.