The season of flips and flops may have one more flop in it next week as the reality sets in that there are only going to be 5 people in the house with 4 of them being in the same alliance. Every week that a number dwindles becomes a week harder and harder to get out your opponent. The extra vote is always helpful, and that is why that extra vote always ends up being used until they’re in the final 2-3. Look back at the seasons for the final 3 recently.
- 17 – Steve, Liz, Vanessa. Liz makes final 2 after floating her way through most of the season. She did have a target being a twin, but still didn’t do much. Probably strongest final 3 out of bunch.
- 16 – Derrick, Cody, Victoria. Derrick used Victoria the entire game and brought her all the way to the final 3.
- 15 – Andy, GinaMarie, Spencer. This is a season where 2 useless people made the final 3, and some can argue all 3 were useless. Andy was a bit strategic, but he was fortunate to be surrounded by a really, really bad cast
- 14 – Ian, Dan, Danielle. Like season 16, this was a rare one where two strong players were in the finale. They were helped along by the votes of Danielle, of course.
- 13 – Rachel, Porsche, Adam. Adam was the non-douchebag version of Spencer. The thing they had in common was both being completely useless all season. As far as Porsche goes, I still don’t think she realizes she was on the show.
The one surprising thing about this list is that other than season 17, the weakest players got the worst finish in the game – 3rd place. Typically in other shows (like Survivor), they will be dragged all the way to the final 2 if possible, but Ian changed that in his season by choosing Dan over Danielle. Cody tried the same strategy, but that blew up on him when Derrick won 7-2 (ouch).
This season, it appeared as if some strong players will make it into the final 3 with Paul, Victor, Corey and Nicole all in an alliance, but that could change before finale night as Nicole seems to have other plans. While Cody proved that loyalty doesn’t match up to a strong player, Andy proved that bad players can win if they surround themselves with even worse players. That may be the only chance Nicole has at this point as she is nearing the end and looking over her chances. Right now she has 0 chance against Victor, and possibly only slightly higher against Paul. Sitting next to Corey would hand him the $500k because he had a much better social game than she did. That leaves James or Natalie as the only options she actually has a chance to beat in the final 2, but surprisingly she wants to keep the one who has a higher chance at beating her as well.
Nicole has been plotting with Corey about the possibility of bringing James to the final 3, with possibly the intention of bringing him to the final 2. While I personally think she is having an extremely underrated game, the jury won’t see it how I do, so I think Natalie may be the only person Nicole can bring to the final 2 and actually have a realistic chance at beating. I think a Nicole versus Natalie final 2 may result in the jury just up and walking out without casting a vote. On a serious note – Let’s pretend Nicole does sit next to Natalie, this is how I think the votes would look:
- Nicole: Corey (unless she screws him over), Victor, Paulie
- Natalie: James, Michelle, Bridgette
That leaves Paul, Z, and Da’Vonne as the swing votes. Well, I should just say Da’ as the swing vote as Z will probably vote with her. At the time of leaving, Da’Vonne was not really a fan of Nicole, but she also had little association with Natalie. Unlike many in the jury, Da’Vonne is actually rational, and could possibly be convinced that Nicole deserves to win. I think a Nic vs Nat f2 would come down to their arguments to the jury, and Nicole has a better resume when things are all said and done. Natalie won one comp, and did nothing behind the scenes. Meanwhile, Nicole has 2 HoH’s and 1 PoV (as of now), and can at least take credit for doing things like getting Michelle out before Michelle took her out. It’s still not a whole lot of a resume, and a lot could happen in the next few evictions, but it’s not looking good for Nicole.
(Too long, didn’t read version) Nicole is screwed pretty much regardless of what she does.
- 1:00pm – It was picture day today, and now the house is outside relaxing in the sun.
- I forgot to add. I mentioned 3rd place being the worst finish in the game. That is because they get no extra prize money for going that far, and don’t even get to enjoy the paid vacation that is the jury house.
- Michelle probably have the best finish in the house other than the top 2. She gets the same money the 3rd place finisher gets, received a ton more airtime (if they’re looking for that), and get a few weeks in the jury house. Not too much where you hate it, but not too short where you can’t enjoy it. Michelle is the Goldilocks of the jury house
- 1:35pm – Victor is outside talking to Nicole and/or Corey (depending on sits with him) on the next two weeks. Nicole explained how the final 3 worked
- Corey always looks like he’s thinking about Christmas
- 2:20pm – Paul is awake and the house is loud.
- While alone, Victor was talking to himself about integrity and playing with pride. He said if it costs him the season, so be it.
- 2:35pm – James is telling Natalie how everyone is going to clap and she’s going to walk out of the house like a prom queen (not his words exactly)
- James says he has to get a lot of pictures together with Natalie. I guess he’s going to need someway to remember her when she stops talking to him
- 2:45pm – James is reassuring Natalie that it comes down to who is a threat.
- He is pointing out how one of them have to go on the block, so the first shot will be fired regardless. This will make for an opportunity to slide into the final 3 (he is aware, somewhat)
- 3:00pm – James is talking about the care packages and why Victor or Paul didn’t win one
- He first says their odds were double that of Corey’s. He then breaks it down that they had a 75% chance to Corey’s 25%. Now we know why James did so bad at that math comp.
- The reason Corey won is the same reason people still blame Nader for Bush in 2000. While they should have a 33% chance each, most people look at it as Corey versus Paul/Victor. Corey is going to get his votes regardless (mostly from Nicole fans), but many people who like Victor also like Paul and vice versa. That means they split the votes and for every Corey vote, Paul gets 1/2 a vote, and Victor gets 1/2 a vote (roughly).
- If Paul or Victor wasn’t there, the other person would have dominated Corey (most likely), but instead they shared votes.
- 4:20pm – Back from dinner. James is still hanging out with Natalie talking about eviction this week
- Get this – Natalie is upset because she allegedly campaigned for James to stay, and she thinks it worked. Hahahahaha
- Sorry about laughing, but I knew she was bullshit when she said she’d save him. Just like Paulie to Corey, they say that stuff because they’re on TV and worried about their image. Paulie NEVER would have used the PoV on Corey, and Natalie doesn’t really want to save James. She wants to stay.
- 4:50pm – After a bunch of time having a pity party for herself… which makes me bring this out…
- Now it’s time to talk about how amazing Natalie is from both James and Nat. The only thing worse than listening to James talk about how great Natalie is, is her talking about herself
- Also, warning. I am going to watch Stranger Things as soon as wifey gets home, so I don’t know if I’ll be gone 1 hour or 5. That show is pretty addicting. Good thing there are only 8 episodes
- 5:10pm – Meanwhile, Paul, Victor and Corey are talking about how bored they are.
- Paul jokes(?) that he secretly wants someone to hurt themselves so they speed up the process of the season. He is going to put olive oil on the steps
- Victor tells him that he used that joke yesterday. Paul says ‘see, I’m running out of material in here’
- Nicole comes back with water for everyone. Now it’s a game of ‘is there salt in it or not’. Nicole jokes that they should all drink it together
- Paul talks a bit about production and gets a ‘Hey, that’s really annoying’
- Now they’re talking about the Fatal Five. Paul says you’d have a better chance at sticking your hand in a blender.
- Paul points out how they hate Nicole. I wonder if Nicole realizes 3 of the 4 (non Nicole) who hate her are in jury
- Victor makes fun of Zakiyah saying she’s going to ‘Rachel Reilly this season’.. then gets evicted
- 5:40pm – The group goes inside for ice cream.
- When they go in, Natalie and James walk out into the back yard
- The group definitely noticed how awkward that was and talk about it for a bit
- 10:25pm – I guess it was 5 (see: my 4:50 update)
- We get a booze delivery. James really does strike me as a Coors drinker. I don’t even know what a Coors drinker is, but James is it
- On a side note – It is good to see the entire house together. Doesn’t happen often these days
- 11:00pm – Other sites get mentioned again. I need to make this site more memorable so cast members discuss it! Makes me jelly
- Anyway, game news. Nat is gone, wasn’t paying attention where she went. Never cared (I sound like Paul)
- Corey and Nicole leave to play pool, and James starts telling Paul/Victor how Natalie is all upset because she thinks she’s going home
- He is retelling the story earlier how Natalie thinks she sealed her fate when she spoke with Victor
- Vic tells him that nobody should know because the decision hasn’t been made yet. Paul and Victor tell him not to seclude themselves. They point out how one of them have to hang out with them next week, and it’s bad to seclude themselves. James says ‘Exactly!’
- They talk a bit, and it comes up how James and Nat are a pair. James says ‘If it doesn’t work outside of the house, I can’t say I didn’t try’. Victor jumps in to confirm that. He says “If you guys don’t work out, it most certainly won’t be because of you”. Paul tells him how James sticks up for her way more than anyone. He is loyal.
- 11:09pm – The guys are talking about James and his moves. Victor said it was a good move getting him out. He is not at all bitter by it
- Paul agrees, but says he just wishes it was done differently. More straightforward.
- Anyway, they’re back to casual talk. Good time for bed
Come back tomorrow!